Title  International migration and macroeconomic performance
Author  Alexandra da Silva Arede
Advisor  Marta Simões
Year  2014
Institution  School of Economics, University of Coimbra
Degree  Master
Area  Economics with a specialty in Industrial Economics
Keywords  Migration flows, economic growth, Portugal, ARIMA
URI  http://hdl.handle.net/10400.26/28193

Abstract 

This study aims to reflect on the potential impacts of migration flows, and their influences, on macroeconomic performance in Portugal. For this purpose, a characterization of the evolution of migration flows since 1975 is carried out, accompanied also by an analysis of probable macroeconomic causes and consequences. It is found that emigration flows, which have been increasing, are composed of a rather young and increasingly qualified age group and, in contrast, immigration flows, which show a downward trend, have been carried out by individuals originating from developing countries. Through the use of an ARIMA forecast model, we also found that, if Portugal had not been affected by the 2007-2008 financial crisis, the values corresponding to emigration flows would be much lower than the actual values. As for immigration flows, the sharp growth trend would have continued instead of actually decreasing. This means that the current crisis may cause lasting inflections in migration flows with important consequences in terms of Portuguese macroeconomic performance in the long term through, namely, the brain drain associated with the increase in emigration and the accentuation of the aging of the Portuguese population with the reduction in immigration, which until now has been composed mostly of people of working age. Portugal faces not only the challenge of overcoming the recession and, as far as migratory flows are concerned, the challenge of making the country more attractive not only to the native population, avoiding its emigration, but also to the foreign population, namely qualified.